How long will $3M last in retirement?
$3M can last 35+ years at a sustainable 4% withdrawal ($120,000/yr) — but at a heavier 6% draw ($180,000/yr) it lasts about 20 years. How long your money lasts comes down to how much you spend, taxes, and market luck.
How long $3M lasts at each spending level
Retiring at 60 with $3M invested (60% taxable / 30% traditional / 10% Roth), 6% nominal return, 3% inflation, no Social Security:
| Rate | Spend / yr | Spend / mo | How long it lasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $90,000 | $7,500 | 35+ years (to 95) |
| 4% | $120,000 | $10,000 | 35+ years (to 95) |
| 5% | $150,000 | $12,500 | ~26 years (to 86) |
| 6% | $180,000 | $15,000 | ~20 years (to 80) |
| 7% | $210,000 | $17,500 | ~16 years (to 76) |
Three things that change the answer
- Taxes. A dollar in a traditional 401(k) isn't a dollar you can spend — withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. This projection accounts for that, which is why real-world longevity is shorter than a naive "$3M ÷ annual spend."
- Sequence of returns. A market crash in your first few retirement years does far more damage than the same crash later — you're selling assets while they're down. Two retirees with identical average returns can get very different lifespans from the same $3M.
- Social Security, pensions, and part-time income. Every dollar of outside income is a dollar you don't withdraw. Adding Social Security alone often turns a "runs out" plan into one that lasts indefinitely.
These figures assume you retire at 60. Retire earlier and the same $3M must stretch over more years; retire later (or add Social Security) and it lasts longer. Model your exact situation in the calculator.
The binding constraint is the tax bill, not the balance
At this level, outliving the money is rarely the real risk; the schedule the tax code imposes is. Required minimum distributions begin at 73, or 75 for those born in 1960 or later, and force withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts whether or not the income is needed. On a large balance those distributions can stack income into higher brackets, trigger the IRMAA surcharge on Medicare premiums, and expose investment income to the 3.8% surtax. The work shifts from stretching the last dollar to smoothing the tax bill across decades.
The lower-income years between retirement and RMD age are the window to act: partial Roth conversions and deliberate account sequencing can shrink the future forced withdrawals before they arrive.
None of that erases the long-horizon risks. A retirement measured in decades still deserves a dedicated reserve for inflation and long-term care, since those late costs are large, hard to predict, and tend to land exactly when the portfolio is least able to flex.
Common questions
How long will $3M last in retirement?
At a sustainable 4% withdrawal ($120,000/year), $3M lasts 35+ years retiring at 60. At a 6% draw ($180,000/year) it lasts about 20 years. The exact answer depends on your spending, taxes, and market returns.
What's a safe withdrawal rate for $3M?
The classic "4% rule" — $120,000/year from $3M, rising with inflation — has historically lasted a 30-year retirement. Retiring early (a longer horizon) argues for a slightly lower rate closer to 3.5%.
Does this include taxes?
Yes. The projection applies the federal (and where relevant, state) tax you'd owe withdrawing from taxable, traditional, and Roth accounts, so the longevity figures are realistic rather than a simple division.