How long will $1M last in retirement?
$1M can last 35+ years at a sustainable 4% withdrawal ($40,000/yr) — but at a heavier 6% draw ($60,000/yr) it lasts about 20 years. How long your money lasts comes down to how much you spend, taxes, and market luck.
How long $1M lasts at each spending level
Retiring at 60 with $1M invested (60% taxable / 30% traditional / 10% Roth), 6% nominal return, 3% inflation, no Social Security:
| Rate | Spend / yr | Spend / mo | How long it lasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $30,000 | $2,500 | 35+ years (to 95) |
| 4% | $40,000 | $3,333 | 35+ years (to 95) |
| 5% | $50,000 | $4,167 | ~25 years (to 85) |
| 6% | $60,000 | $5,000 | ~20 years (to 80) |
| 7% | $70,000 | $5,833 | ~16 years (to 76) |
Three things that change the answer
- Taxes. A dollar in a traditional 401(k) isn't a dollar you can spend — withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. This projection accounts for that, which is why real-world longevity is shorter than a naive "$1M ÷ annual spend."
- Sequence of returns. A market crash in your first few retirement years does far more damage than the same crash later — you're selling assets while they're down. Two retirees with identical average returns can get very different lifespans from the same $1M.
- Social Security, pensions, and part-time income. Every dollar of outside income is a dollar you don't withdraw. Adding Social Security alone often turns a "runs out" plan into one that lasts indefinitely.
These figures assume you retire at 60. Retire earlier and the same $1M must stretch over more years; retire later (or add Social Security) and it lasts longer. Model your exact situation in the calculator.
Guardrails beat a rigid four percent rule
A flat inflation-adjusted withdrawal rule is a useful planning benchmark, but treating it as an unbreakable commitment is what puts a portfolio at risk. Dynamic strategies such as guardrails set an upper and lower boundary around the withdrawal rate: when a strong market pushes the rate below the lower rail you can give yourself a raise, and when a weak market lifts it above the upper rail you trim. Research on these rules consistently shows they let a portfolio support more spending, or last far longer, than a rule that never adapts.
The danger they guard against is concentrated early. Sequence-of-returns risk is greatest in the first decade, when a bad run of returns paired with steady withdrawals can permanently shrink the base. A bond tent, holding more bonds and cash near the retirement date and drifting back toward stocks over the following years, blunts that opening vulnerability.
It also helps to expect the spending smile: real outlays often ease through the active early years, dip in the slower middle, then climb late as healthcare costs rise.
Common questions
How long will $1M last in retirement?
At a sustainable 4% withdrawal ($40,000/year), $1M lasts 35+ years retiring at 60. At a 6% draw ($60,000/year) it lasts about 20 years. The exact answer depends on your spending, taxes, and market returns.
What's a safe withdrawal rate for $1M?
The classic "4% rule" — $40,000/year from $1M, rising with inflation — has historically lasted a 30-year retirement. Retiring early (a longer horizon) argues for a slightly lower rate closer to 3.5%.
Does this include taxes?
Yes. The projection applies the federal (and where relevant, state) tax you'd owe withdrawing from taxable, traditional, and Roth accounts, so the longevity figures are realistic rather than a simple division.