How long will $1.5M last in retirement?
$1.5M can last 35+ years at a sustainable 4% withdrawal ($60,000/yr) — but at a heavier 6% draw ($90,000/yr) it lasts about 20 years. How long your money lasts comes down to how much you spend, taxes, and market luck.
How long $1.5M lasts at each spending level
Retiring at 60 with $1.5M invested (60% taxable / 30% traditional / 10% Roth), 6% nominal return, 3% inflation, no Social Security:
| Rate | Spend / yr | Spend / mo | How long it lasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | $45,000 | $3,750 | 35+ years (to 95) |
| 4% | $60,000 | $5,000 | 35+ years (to 95) |
| 5% | $75,000 | $6,250 | ~26 years (to 86) |
| 6% | $90,000 | $7,500 | ~20 years (to 80) |
| 7% | $105,000 | $8,750 | ~16 years (to 76) |
Three things that change the answer
- Taxes. A dollar in a traditional 401(k) isn't a dollar you can spend — withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. This projection accounts for that, which is why real-world longevity is shorter than a naive "$1.5M ÷ annual spend."
- Sequence of returns. A market crash in your first few retirement years does far more damage than the same crash later — you're selling assets while they're down. Two retirees with identical average returns can get very different lifespans from the same $1.5M.
- Social Security, pensions, and part-time income. Every dollar of outside income is a dollar you don't withdraw. Adding Social Security alone often turns a "runs out" plan into one that lasts indefinitely.
These figures assume you retire at 60. Retire earlier and the same $1.5M must stretch over more years; retire later (or add Social Security) and it lasts longer. Model your exact situation in the calculator.
Over thirty years, inflation and care costs are the real threats
On a multi-decade horizon the market's day-to-day moves matter less than two slow, grinding forces: inflation and the cost of long-term care. Prices compounding over a long retirement can quietly halve purchasing power, and an extended period of paid care is the single expense most likely to overwhelm an otherwise sound plan. Neither shows up in a simple withdrawal-rate table, yet both decide whether the money truly lasts.
Asset allocation is the first defense. Holding enough in stocks to outpace inflation over decades, balanced against enough in bonds and cash to ride out downturns without forced selling, keeps the portfolio growing in real terms rather than eroding.
Insuring the tail risks is the second. Partial longevity insurance can convert a slice of the balance into guaranteed lifetime income, so the rest of the portfolio does not have to stretch indefinitely.
- An immediate annuity covering essential expenses creates a private pension.
- A deferred annuity, or QLAC, pays out only if you live into your eighties or beyond.
- A dedicated care reserve or insurance policy shields the plan from a long stay.
Common questions
How long will $1.5M last in retirement?
At a sustainable 4% withdrawal ($60,000/year), $1.5M lasts 35+ years retiring at 60. At a 6% draw ($90,000/year) it lasts about 20 years. The exact answer depends on your spending, taxes, and market returns.
What's a safe withdrawal rate for $1.5M?
The classic "4% rule" — $60,000/year from $1.5M, rising with inflation — has historically lasted a 30-year retirement. Retiring early (a longer horizon) argues for a slightly lower rate closer to 3.5%.
Does this include taxes?
Yes. The projection applies the federal (and where relevant, state) tax you'd owe withdrawing from taxable, traditional, and Roth accounts, so the longevity figures are realistic rather than a simple division.