The Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator was retired. Here is the same simulation.
Vanguard’s Retirement Nest Egg Calculator — the free Monte Carlo that took a balance, a yearly spend, a number of years and a stock/bond/cash mix and returned the odds the money lasted — is no longer on Vanguard’s site. This page runs those same inputs through Coastline’s simulator: $1,000,000 at 65, $40,000 a year, 30 years, four stock/bond mixes, 67 market histories (1928–2024) each.
What happened to the Vanguard Nest Egg Calculator
It was withdrawn in 2024. Its disappearance was documented by users in a Bogleheads thread, “Where did Vanguard nest egg calculator go???”, and a Change.org petition started in June 2024 asked Vanguard to restore it, quoting the reason given as low usage. Vanguard’s tools and calculators page today lists a Retirement Income Calculator — described there as a check on whether what you are saving is on track — and no Nest Egg Calculator. The tables below are the closest thing to the old output this site can produce honestly: the same four inputs, a range of outcomes instead of one line, and the odds the money lasts.
Vanguard’s classic inputs, re-run
A $1,000,000 balance drawn down by $40,000 a year (rising with 3% inflation) over 30 years, across the stock/bond mixes the old tool let you dial in. “Lasted” is the share of 67 historical-cycle runs that funded every year to 95; the ending balances are the 10th percentile, median and 90th percentile, in today’s dollars.
| Stocks / bonds | Lasted 30 yrs | Bad luck (10th) | Median | Good luck (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% / 70% | 63% | $0 | $172,490 | $2,014,188 |
| 50% / 50% | 84% | $0 | $754,832 | $2,871,258 |
| 70% / 30% | 88% | $0 | $1,675,806 | $3,895,172 |
| 100% / 0% | 93% | $377,170 | $4,052,352 | $7,508,297 |
And the other dial the old tool had — the yearly spend — at a fixed 70/30 mix:
| Spend / yr | Lasted 30 yrs | Bad luck (10th) | Median | Good luck (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30,000 | 100% | $1,021,981 | $2,312,227 | $4,754,103 |
| $40,000 | 88% | $0 | $1,675,806 | $3,895,172 |
| $50,000 | 69% | $0 | $1,126,299 | $3,074,130 |
| $60,000 | 52% | $0 | $270,920 | $2,255,288 |
Two differences to hold in mind when comparing with numbers you remember from the old tool. It treated the yearly figure as a pre-tax withdrawal; here $40,000 is what the retiree actually spends, and the engine draws whatever more is needed to cover the income tax on the traditional-401k share of the withdrawal (the portfolio is split 60% taxable, 30% traditional, 10% Roth) — small for a single filer at this size, but not zero. And from 65 the engine charges Medicare premiums on top of the $40,000, which the old tool did not know about. Both push these odds a little below a no-tax simulator’s at the same spend — and closer to what a household experiences.
What the old tool did vs what this does
| Feature | Coastline | Vanguard Nest Egg (retired) |
|---|---|---|
| Monte Carlo "will it last" simulation | Yes | Yes |
| Inputs: balance, yearly spending, years, stock/bond mix | Yes | Yes |
| Range of outcomes (bad luck / median / good luck) | Yes | Yes |
| Federal + state income tax on withdrawals | Yes | No |
| Social Security / other income | Yes | No |
| Accumulation (working years) modeling | Yes | No |
| Roth conversion / withdrawal-order strategy | Yes | No |
| Year-by-year detail behind the odds | Yes | No |
| Still available | Yes — free, no signup | No — withdrawn in 2024 |
Assumptions for the tables: single filer, no-income-tax state, no Social Security, 3% inflation, historical-cycle simulation seeded so the figures are reproducible; ending balances deflated to today’s dollars at age 95. The old tool’s return assumptions were its own and are not reproduced here — this is the same question with the same inputs, answered by a different engine that also does the tax math.
Common questions
What happened to the Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator?
Vanguard removed it from its website in 2024. A Bogleheads thread documented its disappearance and a Change.org petition started in June 2024 asked for it back, citing low usage as the reason Vanguard gave. Vanguard’s tools page now offers a Retirement Income Calculator instead.
What did the Vanguard Nest Egg Calculator do?
It took four inputs — how long the savings needed to last, the current balance, yearly spending, and the split between stocks, bonds and cash — and ran a Monte Carlo simulation to report the probability the money lasted. It did not model taxes, Social Security or the working years.
Is this the same simulation?
It is the same question with the same four inputs — balance, yearly spend, years, stock/bond mix — answered by Coastline’s engine: 67 historical market sequences per row, with federal income tax on the traditional-account share of each withdrawal. It is not Vanguard’s code or its return assumptions, so the figures will not match the old tool’s to the percentage point.
Is the replacement free?
Yes. Coastline is free, with no account needed; the tables on this page are computed at build time and the calculator behind them runs your own inputs the same way.